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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."