đŸ”— Share this article A Prediction Market User Profited $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the period preceding former President Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A particular user, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. But these probabilities had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, suggesting a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A small number of other traders also made significant sums from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. Proposed legislation presented on Monday aims to prohibit public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry were examined under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."